Outsmarting the market

When investing it can be easily forgotten that you are pitting your wits against other market participants. For every buyer there is an opposite seller whose opinions on the value and future return of the underlying asset must differ.

As Howard Marks eloquently describes in his latest memo to Oaktree investors, most transactions result in a win/loose outcome. The buyer must be of the opinion that an asset is worth more than the market price whereas the seller believes the price received is higher than the assets value. One participant will most likely have made a mistake in their valuation and will be proved wrong.

So, how easy is it to outsmart and be ahead of the collective wisdome of Mr Market?

Well, lets find out with this simple quiz......

'Pick a whole number between 0 and 100. The 'winner' is the person who chooses the number closest to 2/3rds of the average number chosen.'

Send your answer, with comments if you wish, to the following email address valuefactorsd@gmail.com. 

(Do not post on this blog for others too see).

I will collect the responses and present the results at the end of next week.

Good luck!